While intra-regional trade is likely to be the largest source of trade volume growth this year, the prospects for inter-regional trades remain diverse. The Graph of the Month shows the projected absolute volume growth in 2013 accounted for by a breakdown of routes, along with full year % growth forecasts.

Mainlane trade growth is likely to remain relatively subdued this year, as the US and European economies struggle to achieve substantial growth. Westbound Far East-Europe trade grew by 1.1% in 1H 2013, and is expected to grow by 1.4% in full year 2013, adding just 0.19m TEU to last year’s total of 13.52m TEU.

Meanwhile, Transpacific headhaul (EB) trade volumes grew by 1.8% y-o-y over the first seven months of 2013, and are currently projected to increase by 2.2% in the full year to reach 13.6m TEU, adding 0.30m TEU on last year.

Backhaul growth on both trades is likely to be slightly stronger, although China’s ‘Green Fence’ policy has the potential to hamper volumes of waste materials sent there for recycling. Elsewhere, Trans-atlantic trade growth is likely to remain low, with 2013 volumes still below those of 2004-7. In total, mainlane trade is currently projected to grow by 2.3% this year (as shown on graph) to reach 48.2m TEU.

In comparison, non-mainlane trades should again display stronger growth this year. North-South trades involving Africa and Oceania have, in general, grown robustly in 1H 2013. African imports from the Far East expanded by an estimated 10.1% y-o-y in the first half of 2013, while African imports from Europe grew by 8.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, Far East exports to Oceania grew by 11.4% y-o-y, while trade in the other direction expanded by 11.7% y-o-y in 1H 2013.

However, trades involving Latin America have grown less strongly so far this year. Far East-Latin America, the largest of all North-South trades, saw volumes increase by just 1.6% y-o-y in 1H 2013, as the Brazilian economy in particular remained relatively weak.

Elsewhere, growth on east-west trades to and from the Middle East/Indian Subcontinent may well be lacklustre this year, as the Indian economy continues to slow. Yet, as non-mainlane East-West trade is relatively large, it should still contribute an estimated 0.75m TEU extra this year.

Of inter-regional trades, the non-mainlanes will dominate trade growth again this year. However, the key regions are shifting, with Africa and Oceania contributing more, and Latin America less, towards overall volume growth.

The mainlane trades should all register growth this year, having contracted by a combined 0.8% in 2012, but look unlikely to challenge the non-mainlanes as the key growth drivers in 2013 as a whole.