Headlines this year have been grabbed by containership ordering in the largest size sectors. 16 ships of 18,000+ TEU (totalling 0.29m TEU) have been contracted this year, along with 31 vessels in the 13-16,000 TEU sector (0.45m TEU). However, as the Graph of the Month shows, the 8-10,000 TEU sector has been even more active, with 74 orders totalling 0.68m TEU placed so far in 2013, accounting for 35% of contracts, and 40% of capacity ordered this year.

New Designs Tempt Investors
In the current fleet there are 350 ships of 8-10,000 TEU, totalling 3.0m TEU. Meanwhile, boosted by 2010-11 contracting, 138 ships of 1.27m TEU are on order in the size range, equivalent to 42% of 8-10,000 TEU fleet capacity. In comparison, there are 911 Panamaxes of 3,000+ TEU totalling 3.8m TEU in the fleet, but just 11 on order.
As operators look to upsize from Panamaxes, increasingly unsuitable on larger North-South and USEC Transpacific trades, 8-10,000 TEU ships may become the new workhorses on a number of trade routes.
Investors have been enticed by economies of scale as well as designs reportedly more fuel efficient than similar capacity vessels ordered pre-downturn. New orders are wide-beam (48.2m) - 19 rows across - but will be able to transit the expanded Panama Canal (49m beam).
They are also shorter, at around 300m LOA, than the older designs in the size range that reached 366m. With high reefer capacities of 1,000+ plugs, they are suited to use on a variety of trades. Finally, this year’s orders came near the bottom of the pricing cycle, with reported prices of $80-90m, compared to around $130m in 2008.

Where Will They Go?
These ships offer flexible deployment options. North-South trades, where 17% of capacity is now provided by 8,000+ TEU ships (up from 8% at start 2013) are likely to be a home for many of these vessels. Meanwhile, 40% of Transpacific capacity is currently on 8,000+ TEU ships - at start Q4 there were 127 vessels in the 8-10,000 TEU range plying the trade. However, just ten 10,000+ TEU ships call at US ports, demonstrating the current reluctance to upsize further.
So what will drive further demand for 8-10,000 TEU ships? North-South trade is currently projected to grow by 4.6% this year, with growth expected to improve to 5.7% in 2014. Meanwhile, the Transpacific trade is projected to grow by 3.0% in full year 2013, before picking up to 5.0% growth next year.
Additionally, when the expanded Panama Canal opens in late 2015, strings of Panamaxes to the US East Coast will be ripe for upsizing. If there are risks, they are that a prolonged slowdown in North-South trade, or lengthy port development delays, could temporarily dent demand for ships in this size range. And yet, despite this year’s ordering spree, with the flexible 8-10,000 TEU size likely to become a widely deployed global workhorse, recent contracting looks set to be the start of a strong demand trend in the sector.

(Source : Clarksons)