In January 2014, Indonesia introduced new regulations on exports of unprocessed minerals. Exports of some minerals have been heavily taxed, whilst shipments of other ores, such as nickel ore and bauxite, have been completely banned. The biggest impact of the ban, in terms of seaborne dry bulk trade, has been on nickel ore and bauxite trade, as Indonesian exports accounted for 58% and 65% of global trade in these commodities respectively in 2013.

Sharp Decline
The importer country most affected by the ban has been China, whose imports of bauxite and nickel ore have grown strongly in recent years to reach a total of 143mt in 2013, accounting for around 90% of global trade in these commodities. During 2013, China imported significant volumes of nickel ore and bauxite to build up stocks in anticipation of the ban.

As shown by the Graph of the Month, Chinese imports from Indonesia have plummeted since January 2014. As a result, China’s total imports of bauxite and nickel ore averaged 5.2mt per month between February and May 2014, compared to 11.9mt on average per month in full year 2013.

Finding New Sources
In the year to date, China has been able to increase nickel ore imports from the Philippines, the only other major nickel ore exporter, in a similar fashion to when restrictions on Indonesian exports were in place in May to November 2012. By May 2014, imports from the Philippines rose to 4.0mt, com-pared to the 2.5mt per month average in 2013.

In the case of bauxite, China has a wider variety of alternative suppliers, such as Australia, India, Guinea and the Dominican Republic. These countries accounted for 90% of Chinese bauxite imports in May 2014, compared to 36% in May 2013. However, absolute export volumes from these countries to China have been relatively weak in the year to date due to high stockpiles in China, infrastructure constraints and the fact that mining projects in some of these countries are still at the early stages of development.

Limited Cargoes
In the short-term, extremely limited bauxite and nickel ore cargoes from Indonesia as a result of the ban may continue to have a negative impact on Panamax and Handymax demand. Given that it currently looks unlikely that the ban will be reversed or relaxed later this year, global trade in nickel ore and bauxite is currently projected to decline 23% and 28% respectively in full year 2014.

While Indonesia’s restrictions have led to greater Chinese investment into bauxite mining in Africa, as well as nickel ore and bauxite refinery capacity in Indonesia, bauxite and nickel ore trade is likely to continue to be hampered in the short-term. In the longer-term, it is expected that China will import bauxite and nickel ore from more distant sources. However, there remains uncertainty over how China’s demand for nickel ore will develop and by how much nickel ore and bauxite mines in other countries will be able to increase output.
(Source: Clarksons)