The volume of newbuilding tonnage delivered has fluctuated substantially over the recent great shipbuilding cycle. The number of yards delivering ships (1,000 GT and above) has also varied, peaking at close to 600 in 2010 before falling to 421 last year. This month’s Shipbuilding Focus looks at how the share of deliveries has developed at the very top yards.

As the Graph of the Month shows, the number of yards making a delivery has varied significantly since the contracting boom of the mid-2000s. In 2005, 334 yards delivered almost 1,600 ships of 72.2m dwt. This rose to 576 yards delivering over 3,000 ships of 152.4m dwt at the peak of the delivery boom in 2010.

However, with the fall in contracting activity following the global downturn, the number of yards making a delivery declined and, last year, 155 fewer yards delivered a ship compared to 2010. This slide appears to have continued, albeit as a slower rate, and this year 295 yards have made a delivery so far.

Whilst it is interesting to note the number of yards making a delivery, it is also informative to look at the output from the ‘top’ yards. Based on analysis of the yards delivering the most tonnage each year, the ‘top 10’ yards delivered over 50% of tonnage in 2005.

Whilst, despite expanding output, this fell to around 38% during the delivery boom, it has since risen, moving back in the direction of the pre-delivery boom share, even as the volume of tonnage delivered from these largely experienced yards fell from 63.7m dwt in 2011 to 43.9m dwt in 2013.

Meanwhile, the next group of builders which comprise the ‘top 11-20’ have maintained a fairly consistent share of global deliveries, outputting between 16% and 20% of tonnage p.a. since 2005. The volume of output from these yards has varied substantially, ramping up by 63% (to 24.7m dwt) between 2008 and 2010 during the delivery boom as yards reacted quickly to increased demand before scaling back (to 18.5m dwt in 2013) as global demand fell.

The yards which comprise the ‘top 10’ have remained broadly the same since 2005, and, unsurprisingly, South Korean yards feature most prominently. Meanwhile, Chinese yards, which accounted for 5% of tonnage output from the ‘top 10’ yards in 2005, have increased their share and in the ytd two Chinese state yards alone account for 20% of deliveries from the ‘top 10’.

There has been greater variation in the shipbuilders which comprise the ‘top 11-20’ list with a total of 28 different yards featuring ? the majority of these yards are in China. Again, the share of deliveries made by Chinese yards has increased over the period. Chinese yards accounted for just under 30% of dwt output by the ‘top 11-20’ yards in 2005; however, in the ytd, seven Chinese yards accounted for 70% of the ‘top 11-20’ deliveries.

So there you have it. As the cycle of delivery volumes moves back towards pre-boom levels, the shipbuilding landscape is also recalibrating, with fewer yards active. The established yards of the ‘top 10’ are moving back towards the 50% share marker, whilst the next tier of yards, despite seeing a change in composition and their output fall, are maintaining a fairly constant share of global output.
(Source: Clarksons)