Coal-fired power stations comprise around 60% of India’s power output, and with domestic supply issues and favourable international coal prices, the country looks set to continue to rely on imports. In 2014, India’s thermal coal imports increased 15% to an estimated 162mt. Given that Chinese imports are likely to fall in the coming years, India could emerge as the largest seaborne importer of steam coal

Tumbling Coal Prices
Indian thermal coal imports rose considerably in 2014, partly benefiting from the lowest coal prices in four years. Prices of Indonesian and South African coal, which accounted for 95% of Indian steam coal imports in 2014, fell 19% and 26% y-o-y respectively.

Furthermore, the stabilisation of the Rupee in 2014 meant that Indian buyers were in a stronger position to exploit falling international coal prices. As such, in January-October 2014, imports from Indonesia rose 13% y-o-y, while shipments from South Africa rose 48% y-o-y.

A Strain On Supply
The increase in Indian steam coal imports was also supported by sluggish growth in domestic coal production in 2014. Output rose by around 5% y-o-y in 2014, far below growth targets and even further below the country’s overall electricity generation growth, which reached 9% in 2014. Legal and bureaucratic constraints and logistical bottlenecks limited domestic steam coal production growth, putting further downward pressure on the domestic coal supply.

The Supreme Court’s cancellation of 200 mining licences in September 2014, amidst an ongoing license allocation corruption scandal, as well as the government’s inability to pass the Coal Mines Bill, also restricted coal production growth. As a result, import demand increased in order to help to meet energy needs. Coal India’s announcements that the country will completely cut thermal coal imports over the next 2-3 years contrast with the domestic supply situation and growing levels of consumption.

Low Stockpiles To Top It Off
Furthermore, dry weather conditions during the Indian monsoon season meant that the country’s hydro-electric power generation was hampered in 2014, leading to greater reliance on existing coal stocks. As such, stocks of thermal coal dropped to 7.8mt in October, the lowest level since November 2012, while the average number of power plants at ‘super critical’ stock levels (less than four days of use) rose 81% y-o-y, peaking at 38 stations.

In order to replenish stocks during the monsoon season and meet domestic power demand, Indian coal-fired power stations ramped up imports during the months when they traditionally decline, between July and September.

So, critically low inventory levels, coupled with insufficient domestic production are likely to continue to push power station operators to turn to currently cheaply imported coal to fulfil their supply requirements. Indian thermal coal imports are thus projected to grow by a further 8% y-o-y to total 174mt in 2015, partly supported by an $8bn investment in existing port infrastructure.

Given that Chinese imports are expected to decline in 2015, the global picture may be shifting towards India as the world leader in seaborne steam coal imports for the first time.
(Source: Clarksons)