China, which imports more iron ore than the rest of the world combined, will buy a record amount this quarter, easing concern about the engine of global economic growth and extending a two-month rally in shipping rates.

Capesizes, carrying more ore than any other vessel class, will earn $12,000 a day in the first quarter, says Arctic Securities ASA, a bank in Oslo whose recommendations on shipping stocks returned 17 percent in a year.

Investors may profit from that because freight swaps for the period are trading at $8,500. Fourth-quarter shipments will rise 5.5 percent from a year earlier to 188 million metric tons, according to the median of 11 analyst, trader and broker estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Just two months after plunging iron-ore prices signaled China’s seven-quarter slowdown would worsen, the government’s $158 billion roads-to-sewers stimulus plan unveiled in September is boosting demand for the commodity and diminishing a glut in shipping.

STX Pan Ocean Co., which has the highest proportion of Capesizes in its fleet among the five largest owners, will return to profit in 2013 after two years of losses, the median of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Earnings for the ships, each carrying about 160,000 tons of ore, jumped more
than fourfold to $15,422 a day since the end of August, according to the Baltic Exchange, the London-based publisher of costs on more than 50 marine routes. While Arctic’s predicted firstquarter rate would be up 72 percent from a year earlier, it’s still below what most owners need to break even.

Capesize rates averaged $7,030 since the start of January, heading for the lowest annual figure since at least 1999, according to Baltic Exchange data. Earnings exceeded the $16,400 that Pareto Securities AS estimates owners need to break even in only 10 sessions this year.

The government in Beijing, which began a once-a-decade leadership transition last week, approved plans to build 1,254 miles of roads, nine sewage-treatment plants, five port and warehouse projects, and two waterway improvements.

That coincided with central-bank pledges from the U.S. to Europe to Japan to do more to bolster growth.

China’s economy will grow 7.7 percent this quarter and accelerate in each of the next three periods, the mean of as many as 31 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Its ironore imports will rise 8 percent to a record 779 million tons next year, Clarkson estimates.

“The fear is Chinese growth will slow, and it will take the market time to work off the oversupply of ships,” said analyst Erik Nikolai Stavseth of Arctic Securities.

“But with signs pointing to imports staying strong into next year, there’s reason to be optimistic about rates in the first quarter.”

(Isaac Arnsdorf, 2012 Bloomberg)